Delta Trims 2026 Profit Outlook as Fuel Costs Surge

Delta Air Lines shares slipped in early afternoon trading on Friday after the carrier cut its full-year profit forecast, as a steep rise in jet-fuel prices overshadowed record quarterly revenue. The stock changed hands at $81.12 as of early afternoon, down 1.2%, after falling close to $79 earlier in the session. It closed Thursday at $82.14.

The fuel bill jumped 62%

Delta reported September-quarter operating revenue of $20.19 billion, up 21% from a year earlier and a September-quarter record. Adjusted revenue rose 16% to $17.59 billion. Profit told a different story. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.72 a share, up just 1%, while earnings under standard accounting fell 47% to $1.15.

Fuel was the reason. Adjusted fuel expense rose 62% from a year earlier to $4.14 billion, with the adjusted price per gallon climbing 60% to $3.61. The jump pulled Delta’s operating margin down to 7.2% on a reported basis, or 9.4% adjusted. Operating income came to $1.45 billion, or $1.66 billion adjusted. Chief Financial Officer Erik Snell said the quarter took on more than $500 million in fuel costs beyond what the company had assumed in its early-July guidance.

A sharply lower profit target

The cost surge forced a cut. Delta now expects full-year adjusted earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 a share, down from the $6.50 to $7.50 range it had reaffirmed in July. The midpoint of the forecast dropped $1.65 a share. The airline guided to free cash flow of about $2.5 billion for the year. Chief Executive Ed Bastian said Delta expects roughly $4.5 billion in full-year pretax profit while “absorbing a $6 billion increase in fuel costs.”

Demand held up

Travel demand stayed firm. The pressure came from costs, not the customer. Bastian said demand “remains strong, supported by consumers’ growing preference for experiences and travel.” Delta pointed to record September-quarter revenue and healthy yields, and it expects December-quarter revenue to grow about 20% from a year earlier. For the fourth quarter, management guided to earnings of $1.15 to $1.65 a share, based on a fuel price near $4.25 per gallon.

Still below its summer highs

Delta’s stock has drifted since summer. Before Friday it closed at $82.14, 12% below its high over the past three months and 14% under its 52-week peak of $95.68. It still sits well above its 52-week low of $34.74. By early afternoon more than 8 million shares had traded, a normal day’s turnover. The reaction was measured.

The quarter ahead rides on fuel

Delta’s revised targets lean on where fuel settles. The fourth-quarter plan assumes that same $4.25 level, above the $3.61 the airline paid last quarter, so another move in energy prices could shift the math again. Fuel is the swing factor. Investors will watch Friday’s close for a read on how the market weighs record revenue against a thinner profit path, and earnings from other large U.S. carriers over the coming weeks will show whether higher fuel costs are pressuring the whole industry or Delta alone.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.