Intel Falls 28.6% as a Softer Q4 Forecast Overshadows a Strong Quarter

Intel shares fell 28.6% on Friday, closing at $65.76, after the company followed a stronger-than-expected third quarter with a fourth-quarter forecast that pointed lower and a warning that weak personal-computer demand will run deep into next year. The selling was heavy. Volume reached 4.6 times the stock’s 20-day average.

The quarter beat on growth

Intel reported third-quarter results on October 29, after the market closed. Revenue came in at $16.5 billion, up 21% from a year earlier, and both the top and bottom lines landed ahead of analyst estimates. GAAP diluted earnings were $0.60 a share; non-GAAP earnings were $0.52. The standout was the data center. Revenue in the Data Center and AI unit rose 78% to $7.3 billion, a sign that demand for Intel’s server and AI chips held up even as its PC business cooled.

The forecast pointed down

The outlook is what moved the stock. For the fourth quarter, Intel guided to revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, a step down from the $16.5 billion it had just reported. At the midpoint, that range works out to $15.5 billion, a billion dollars below the quarter it just posted. It set non-GAAP earnings guidance at $0.25 a share, GAAP guidance at $0.10, and a non-GAAP gross margin of 38%. The weak spot is the client business that still supplies most of Intel’s volume, the unit that makes the processors Intel sells into laptops and desktops. Client Computing and Physical AI revenue was $8.1 billion in the quarter, down 5% from a year earlier. Management does not expect a fast recovery. Chief financial officer David Zinsner told analysts the company sees “the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year.” Chief executive Lip-Bu Tan pointed to “near-term headwinds across the PC industry.”

A chip selloff that hit Intel hardest

Friday was rough across chipmakers. Qualcomm fell 11.1% and Advanced Micro Devices lost 10.9% in a weak session for semiconductor and AI-related shares. Intel’s report also landed in a month when AI-linked technology stocks had been selling off broadly. Its own decline ran far deeper than its peers’. It extended a long slide, too: the stock is down 45.2% over the past 30 days. Friday’s close pushed Intel below its prior 90-day low of $81.88 and left it 52.9% beneath the three-month high of $139.63. The volume behind the move, more than four times the recent norm, showed how many holders sold at once.

The December quarter is the next test

The guidance is now the benchmark. Intel has told investors to expect fourth-quarter revenue no higher than $16.0 billion, the top of its range, and has set the margin it expects to earn getting there. The timeline on PC demand matters as much as any single figure: management now frames the weakness as lasting into the first half of 2027. Those two forces, a growing data-center business and a shrinking client unit, defined the third quarter and frame the fourth. The next report, covering the December quarter, will show whether the forecast holds.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.