Markets today: a thin Monday slate as a U.S.-China summit nears

Monday opens with a thin U.S. calendar. Remarks from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee lead the morning, followed by a second-tier read on national activity, and no high-importance data or earnings from the large-cap names Bellwize covers reach the tape before the open. The week fills out after that. A summit between President Trump and President Xi is scheduled for Thursday, the highest-importance event on the docket, and durable goods orders round out the week Friday. Stocks come in off a mixed Friday session, with the Nasdaq higher, the Dow lower, and the S&P 500 barely changed.

On the calendar today

Two scheduled releases carry the day, both of medium importance. Goolsbee speaks first, at 6:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index follows at 8:30 a.m. ET; its prior reading was −0.08, just below the zero line that marks growth at its historical trend. The United Nations General Assembly also opens in New York this week, a diplomatic backdrop rather than a market release. No high-importance economic reports are due today, and no companies Bellwize covers report results.

Backdrop

Friday closed mixed. The S&P 500 edged up 0.17% to 7,650.50. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.39% to 26,522.55, the strongest of the three majors, while the Dow slipped 0.18% to 51,682.64. The VIX, a gauge of expected volatility, sat at 14.81, unchanged on the session and subdued by recent standards. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.94%, lower on the session, the level the rate-sensitive corners of the market carry into the new week.

The week ahead

Two days carry scheduled items:

• Thursday: a summit between President Trump and President Xi, the week’s highest-importance entry, alongside quarterly results from Costco Wholesale.
• Friday: durable goods orders for last month, at 8:30 a.m. ET, forecast at a 0.3% decline after a 1.1% gain the prior month.

What to watch

Goolsbee’s appearance is the first scheduled read on Fed thinking this week. Central-bank policy is the throughline the market keeps returning to, and traders will weigh his tone against a 10-year Treasury yield at 4.94%, the reference point for how the bond market is positioned after last week’s meeting.

The Chicago Fed index at 8:30 a.m. is the session’s only hard data. It rolls a broad set of monthly indicators into a single figure for national economic activity, and the prior −0.08 reading is the baseline the new print updates.

Past those two, the docket is bare. The VIX carried a calm 14.81 into the weekend, the volatility setting the market brings to a quiet Monday with a heavier stretch ahead of it.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.