Markets today: Fed voices lead into a loaded earnings week

The Fed brackets Friday. Chair Warsh spoke overnight, and the Fed’s Goolsbee takes the microphone at 6 p.m. ET, which keeps monetary policy the loudest thread on a thin economic calendar. The data on deck is second-tier: trade prices and factory output, with two Treasury reports later in the day. The heavier schedule waits until next week, when housing figures land Tuesday and a run of large-cap earnings arrives, Netflix and RTX among the Tuesday names and Meta and Tesla on Wednesday. It is a quiet open to a busy week. The calendar thickens the moment the weekend clears.

On the calendar today

The slate is light. Import and export prices for the month post at 8:30 a.m. ET; import prices are forecast at 0.8% month over month against 0.7% prior, and export prices at 1.0% after 0.6%. Industrial production follows at 9:15 a.m. ET, forecast at a 0.4% monthly gain after a flat prior reading. The Treasury’s Monthly Budget Statement lands at 2 p.m. ET, where the forecast points to a $29 billion deficit, far narrower than the prior period’s $167 billion shortfall. Net long-term TIC flows round out the data at 4 p.m. ET, forecast to swing to $75.2 billion of inflows after a $27.9 billion outflow. The Fed’s Goolsbee then speaks in the evening.

Thursday’s close

Stocks finished higher. The Dow led with a 1.08% gain to 52,177.69. The S&P 500 added 0.33% to 7,744.06, while the Nasdaq Composite lagged at 26,713.03, up just 0.08%. The day’s gap left the Dow a full point ahead of the Nasdaq. The VIX eased to 16.13, and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.19%.

The week ahead

• Tuesday: Building permits and housing starts at 8:30 a.m. ET, both high-importance. Earnings from GE Aerospace, Netflix, and RTX.
• Wednesday: Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Thermo Fisher Scientific report.

What to watch

Two Fed appearances frame the day. Warsh spoke overnight and Goolsbee follows at 6 p.m. ET, keeping the rate path at the center of the market’s attention as a policy-heavy stretch gets under way. A pair of policy voices in one session is the kind of setup that can shape the tone at the front end of the curve.

The import and export price figures at 8:30 a.m. ET give the session its first read on goods-price pressure, the kind of data that feeds the inflation question markets have been weighing through the week.

Industrial production at 9:15 a.m. ET updates the factory-output trend after a flat prior month, a gauge of how the goods economy is holding up as the fourth quarter progresses.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.