Bank of America Cuts Nike to Underperform With a $30 Target

Nike shares were little changed on Friday, trading near $35.93 and holding just above their 52-week low, after Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform and cut its price target to $30 from $47. The target is among the Street’s lowest. The muted reaction told its own story: the stock has already fallen so far that another bearish note moved it little.

A $30 target, down from $47

BofA moved Nike to underperform, the firm’s version of a sell rating, from a neutral stance, according to reports Friday from Investing.com and TradingPedia. Its analysts trimmed fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates by 11% and 12%, and now sit about 14% below the average Wall Street forecast for the coming year. The bank said Nike’s classic lifestyle franchises remain weak, newer product launches have disappointed, and inventory in China is still elevated. It also flagged the dividend, noting that Nike is paying out more than it currently earns.

The downgrade capped a month of reductions from other firms. Morgan Stanley resumed coverage at underweight with a $31 target, and UBS lowered its figure to $42 while keeping a neutral call. The direction has been one-way.

A stock already 60% below its high

The reaction was small. The damage is old. Nike closed Thursday at $35.99 and changed hands at $35.93 on Friday. The stock is down 7% over the past month and 15% over three months, and it trades 60% below its 52-week high of $90.26, close to the $35.22 low set this week. Its market value has slipped to about $53 billion, from more than $130 billion a year ago.

The decline has already cost Nike a spot in the S&P 100. It left that index of the largest U.S. companies on Sept. 21 in a quarterly rebalance, replaced by technology names including Dell and Palo Alto Networks, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Nike remains in the S&P 500 and in the Dow, where it has been the weakest performer this year. For a company that spent nearly two decades among the country’s 100 most valuable, the exit marked how far the shine has come off.

What Oct. 1 will show

Nike reports fiscal first-quarter results on Oct. 1, after the market closes. Analysts expect revenue of about $11.4 billion, a modest decline from a year earlier, and BofA said it now sees negative sales growth running through fiscal 2027. The bank pushed its expected recovery out toward fiscal 2028. The report will be the first hard read on demand since the summer.

Investors will watch whether the turnaround under chief executive Elliott Hill is taking hold or whether the pressures the analysts described are deepening. The questions are concrete. Can Nike clear its excess inventory without the kind of discounts that bruise margins? And is the China business, a recurring drag in recent quarters, finally stabilizing? The close on Oct. 1 will start to answer them.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.