Tesla Climbs Nearly 6% as Barclays Upgrades on a Possible SpaceX Merger

Tesla shares jumped nearly 6 percent in Monday afternoon trading, changing hands at $393.91 as of early afternoon in New York, up from Friday’s close of $372.22. The move followed an upgrade from Barclays analyst Dan Levy, who lifted the stock to overweight from equal weight and raised his price target to $450 from $370. The catalyst was a single research note.

What Barclays said

Levy’s note centered on a possible combination of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk’s privately held rocket and satellite company. He described a deal as effectively settled in his own thinking and called the prospect a key part of the investment case for the stock. He also pointed to Tesla’s operating businesses, saying he expects vehicle sales to grow this year after two years of declines and that the energy-storage unit is nearly sold out for 2027. The new $450 target sits above the $409 analyst consensus, which had peaked at $426 in July.

Technology led the market higher. The broad Monday rally was helped by an Anthropic IPO filing that lifted sentiment across artificial-intelligence names, and Tesla rose with the group.

A rebound that started in mid-October

The jump extends an October climb. Tesla rose from $354.72 on October 16 to $386.47 on October 21 before easing back to Friday’s close. The rebound is young. Even with Monday’s gain, the stock traded roughly 7 percent below its 90-day high of $425.30, set on July 1, and about 21 percent below its 52-week high of $498.83. It still sat 32 percent above its 90-day low of $298.32 from late July. Over the previous 30 days the shares were close to flat before today’s move, and for the year they have lagged other large-cap technology names even as they led that group this month.

The vote is the hard part

Neither company has announced terms, and no filing exists. Both Tesla and SpaceX have formed special board committees to study a combination, according to reports, and Musk has said there is merit to pairing the two. Levy flagged the central obstacle himself: a deal would need more than half of each company’s outstanding voting power, a bar Barclays called a high hurdle. Musk controls SpaceX’s vote. Tesla’s is the tougher one, and at last year’s annual-meeting turnout, approval could require close to two-thirds of the votes actually cast.

The upgrade also leaves the stock expensive. By Barclays’ own math, Tesla traded at about 175 times forward earnings before Monday, against a five-year average of 108 times. That gap means much of the current price leans on the deal going through rather than on the car business alone.

The calendar runs to December 6

The near-term marker is a date. Tesla must hold its annual shareholder meeting by December 6, and Barclays has suggested any merger announcement could arrive before then, though neither company has set such a timeline. The work of the two special committees comes first, and their opening terms would show whether Tesla holders are offered a premium large enough to clear a shareholder vote. Until something is filed, an upgrade built on the merger rests on an outcome that has not happened yet.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.