Markets today: The Fed decides as Microsoft and Meta report

The Federal Reserve headlines. Its interest-rate decision lands at 2 p.m. ET, followed a half hour later by the chair’s press conference, the day’s high-importance events and the story the overnight tape has settled on. Microsoft and Meta Platforms report after the close, two of the market’s largest names on the same evening. Thursday adds the core inflation gauge the Fed watches most.

On the calendar today

The Fed decision leads. The Federal Reserve releases its interest-rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, with consensus at 3.75%, unchanged from the current 3.75% level. The chair’s press conference follows at 2:30 p.m. ET. Earlier, energy inventories print at 10:30 a.m. ET: the EIA crude oil stocks report is forecast at a 1.75 million-barrel draw, against a 2.0 million-barrel build the week before, and gasoline stocks are penciled in at a 1.09 million-barrel draw versus a 0.77 million-barrel build. The weekly MBA 30-year mortgage rate already crossed at 7 a.m. ET, reading 6.76% against 6.69% the prior week. The two Fed events rank high; the rest rank medium.

Reporting today

Six covered names report. Procter & Gamble crossed before the bell; Chipotle Mexican Grill, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Qualcomm and Starbucks fill out the day’s slate. The two biggest report after the close. Meta and Microsoft anchor the evening.

Backdrop

Stocks finished mixed on Tuesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 7,428.78, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.0% to 52,747.32. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2% to 24,876.91. The Cboe Volatility Index edged up 0.15 point to 18.36, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased four basis points to 4.65%.

The week ahead

Next week fills quickly.

• Thursday. The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, prints at 8:30 a.m. ET, forecast at 0.2% monthly against 0.3% prior. It arrives with the advance second-quarter GDP reading, penciled in at a 2.1% annualized pace, and personal income and spending figures. Apple, Amazon and Mastercard report.
• Friday. Exxon Mobil, Chevron and AbbVie report; no high-importance data is scheduled.
• Monday. The ISM manufacturing PMI lands at 10 a.m. ET, following a 53.3 reading. Palantir Technologies reports.
• Tuesday. Caterpillar, Merck and Pfizer report.

What to watch

• The rate decision and the chair’s tone. The Fed’s statement at 2 p.m. ET and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET are the session’s high-importance events, with the target rate carried in the data at 3.75%.
• Big tech after the bell. Meta and Microsoft headline an evening earnings docket that also carries Chipotle, Qualcomm and Starbucks.
• Energy inventories at mid-morning. The EIA crude and gasoline stock reports at 10:30 a.m. ET both point to draws, following builds the week before.

The Fed’s afternoon sets the tone before the earnings evening begins.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.