Markets today: Core inflation and GDP land before Apple and Amazon report

The data does the heavy lifting today, one session after a broad selloff. The core PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve watches most closely, prints at 8:30 a.m. ET alongside the advance reading on second-quarter GDP and the monthly income and spending figures. Apple and Amazon report after the close, two of the largest names on the tape reporting the same evening. The data leads; the earnings follow.

On the calendar today

The morning is front-loaded. A cluster of releases lands at 8:30 a.m. ET. The core PCE price index is forecast at 0.2% for the month against 0.3% prior, and the broader PCE price index is penciled in at a 0.1% monthly decline versus a 0.4% rise the month before; on a yearly basis, headline PCE is forecast at 3.7% against 4.1%. The advance estimate of second-quarter GDP carries a 2.1% annualized forecast, matching the prior reading, with the GDP price index at 3.6%. Personal income and personal spending are each forecast at 0.3% for the month, down from 0.7%. Initial jobless claims are seen at 200,000 against 187,000 the prior week. The GDP, income, spending and core PCE readings rank high-importance; the rest rank medium.

Reporting today

Seven covered names are on the docket. Mastercard and Southern Company fill the day’s slate, along with Coinbase, Strategy and Rivian. The two largest come after the close. Apple and Amazon anchor the evening.

Backdrop

Stocks fell across the board Wednesday. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% to 7,316.15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.2% to 51,594.14, and the Nasdaq Composite gave back 1.7% to 24,442.94. The Cboe Volatility Index eased 1.52 points to 19.14, and the 10-year Treasury yield slipped four basis points to 4.61%.

The week ahead

• Friday. Exxon Mobil, AbbVie and Chevron report; no high-importance data is scheduled.
• Monday. The ISM manufacturing PMI lands at 10 a.m. ET, following a 53.3 reading. Palantir Technologies reports.
• Tuesday. Advanced Micro Devices, Caterpillar and Merck report.
• Wednesday. Eli Lilly, Walt Disney and Uber Technologies report.

What to watch

• The Fed’s inflation gauge. Core PCE at 8:30 a.m. ET is the morning’s marquee release, forecast at 0.2% monthly against 0.3% prior.
• Growth and the consumer. The advance second-quarter GDP estimate and the personal income and spending figures print in the same 8:30 batch, together with weekly jobless claims, the first read on how the economy closed the quarter.
• Apple and Amazon after the close. Two of the market’s largest companies report the same evening, the headline names on a docket that also carries Coinbase, Strategy and Rivian.

The morning belongs to the data. The evening belongs to Big Tech.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.