Markets today: a wage read to close July, jobs data to open August

The Employment Cost Index leads a light final session of July, with ISM manufacturing and JOLTS openings on deck for the first week of August.

Stocks closed July with a broad, technology-led rally, the Nasdaq up 2.78% and the S&P 500 up 1.66% on Thursday, and the month’s final session is a quieter one by design. The lone scheduled focus this morning is a read on wage growth. The heavier calendar waits until next week, when the ISM manufacturing gauge on Monday and the JOLTS openings report on Tuesday put the labor market back in view.

On the calendar today

8:30 a.m. ET, Employment Cost Index, Q/Q. Forecast 0.8%, versus 0.9% in the prior quarter. The wages component ran 0.8% last quarter and benefits 1.2%.
9:45 a.m. ET, Chicago PMI. Forecast 56, versus 56.7 previously.
10:00 a.m. ET, Michigan consumer sentiment, final. Forecast 54, versus 49.5 in the prior reading.

All three carry medium billing on the economic calendar, and each arrives before 10:30, leaving the rest of the session without a scheduled release.

Reporting today

AbbVie is the covered name on this morning’s earnings slate.

Backdrop

Thursday’s close, the last full session before today: the S&P 500 finished at 7,437.63, up 1.66%; the Dow at 52,208.06, up 1.19%; and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,122.18, up 2.78%. The VIX eased to 17, down 0.53% on the day, and the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.67%.

The week ahead

Monday. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 a.m. ET, following a prior reading of 53.3. Palantir reports.
Tuesday. JOLTS job openings at 10:00 a.m. ET, against 7.594 million previously. AMD, Caterpillar, and Merck report.
Wednesday. Eli Lilly, Disney, and Shopify report.
Thursday. ConocoPhillips reports.

What to watch

The morning’s data lands in a tight window. The Employment Cost Index, a broad measure of what employers pay in wages and benefits, is the reading the Federal Reserve tracks most closely on labor costs; it prints at 8:30, with Chicago PMI and the final Michigan sentiment number following inside the next 90 minutes.

Inflation stayed a live thread across the overnight tape, with reports on European price data and Fed commentary circulating on Reuters and Dow Jones wires. Today’s cost-index figure is the domestic entry in that conversation.

And it is month-end. This is the last trading session of July, the kind of day that can draw index-rebalancing and positioning flows on top of the scheduled data, with the market coming off one of its stronger sessions of the summer. Next week resets the focus toward the labor market, so today’s cost-index print is the last major domestic data point before that shift.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.