Markets today: the July jobs report anchors a Friday of labor data

The July jobs report leads. It lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, the first data of the day and the last major labor read of the run-up to next week’s inflation figures. The unemployment rate and wage numbers print alongside it, and the batch sets the tone for a Friday that quiets after the open.

On the calendar today

The employment report clears at 8:30 a.m. ET in a single release. It is the monthly tally of jobs the economy added or shed, drawn from separate surveys of employers and households, and it is the broadest scheduled look at the labor market the government publishes. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast at 80,000, up from 57,000 in the prior reading. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are forecast at 0.3% on the month and 3.5% over the year, both matching the previous print. The labor-force participation rate, last at 61.5%, comes in the same batch; it measures the share of the working-age population that is employed or looking for work. Payrolls and the jobless rate are the high-importance items, with the wage and participation figures rated medium. A Fed voice follows. The Federal Reserve’s Barkin is scheduled to speak at 10:00 a.m. ET, the day’s only central-bank appearance.

Reporting today

One covered company reports today: Vistra, the Texas-based power generator. Data fills the rest.

Backdrop

Stocks eased on Thursday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.18% to 7,709.96. The Dow fell 0.85% to 53,885.10, the weakest of the major gauges. The Nasdaq Composite was little changed, down 0.06% at 26,348.35. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.63%. The VIX ticked up to 15.18.

The week ahead

• Tuesday: existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET, forecast at 4.07 million against 4.09 million. Earnings from Super Micro Computer.
• Wednesday: the July consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Headline inflation is forecast at 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5%, with the core rate seen at 2.5% against 2.6%.

What to watch

The payrolls print is the clearest scheduled read of the day. It arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, one look at how far hiring cooled and whether wage growth held its pace. The rest sits behind it.

Vistra is the only large-cap result on today’s slate. The power generator’s report is the corporate item most likely to draw attention on a day otherwise given over to the data.

Barkin closes the scheduled agenda. The Richmond Fed president speaks at 10:00 a.m. ET, after the jobs numbers have cleared, and his is the session’s last central-bank voice. Any reaction to the data tends to run through the morning before the calendar empties out.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.