Markets today: the week bends toward Wednesday's inflation report

Wednesday’s inflation report is the week’s fulcrum, and Tuesday sets up quietly ahead of it. Existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET is the only high-importance release on today’s calendar, and Super Micro Computer reports after the close. The July consumer price index lands Wednesday morning, followed by producer prices Thursday and retail sales Friday. Today is the pause before that run.

On the calendar today

Existing home sales clear at 10:00 a.m. ET, the day’s high-importance print. The report counts completed sales of previously owned homes at an annual pace, and it is forecast at 4.05 million against 4.09 million in the prior reading. The month-over-month change, rated medium, last came in at -2.4%. The morning is light otherwise. Before the open, the ADP weekly employment change, a medium-rated labor read, is due at 8:15 a.m. ET. Crude inventories close the schedule: the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly stock change is set for 4:30 p.m. ET, forecast at a draw of 0.5 million barrels after a 2.69 million build.

Reporting today

One covered company reports today. Super Micro Computer, the Nasdaq-listed server maker, releases results after the close. Data carries the rest of the session.

Backdrop

Stocks finished Monday little changed. The S&P 500 eased 0.06% to 7,753.11. The Dow slipped 0.11% to 53,975.98. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32% to 26,605.36, the weakest of the three. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.65%. The VIX held at 15.47.

The week ahead

• Wednesday: the July consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Headline inflation is forecast at 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5%, with the core rate seen at 2.5% against 2.6%. On the month, headline is forecast at 0.1% after -0.4%, and core at 0.2% after a flat prior reading.
• Thursday: the July producer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET, forecast at 0.2% on the month after -0.3%. It is the wholesale-price counterpart to the prior day’s consumer figures.
• Friday: July retail sales at 8:30 a.m. ET, forecast at 0.1% against 0.2%, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading at 10:00 a.m. ET, forecast at 54.5 from 55.2.

What to watch

Existing home sales is the one scheduled read that carries weight today. It prints at 10:00 a.m. ET, a single look at whether resales steadied after the prior month’s step down. The rest of the morning is thin.

Super Micro Computer is the only large-cap result on the slate. The server maker reports after the close, and its numbers are the corporate item most likely to draw attention on a day otherwise given to data.

Energy set the pace to start the week, its oil-and-gas names topping Monday’s gainers. Crude stays in view, with the API inventory figure due at 4:30 p.m. ET. That print is a private-industry read on U.S. crude stockpiles, and a draw is forecast after last week’s build.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.