Markets today: the July inflation report lands before the open

The July consumer price index arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET, the number the market has spent the week waiting for. Everything else on Wednesday’s calendar sits behind it: oil inventories at midmorning, the federal budget in the afternoon. Producer prices land Thursday and retail sales Friday, and today’s inflation reading sets the tone for that run. No company Bellwize covers reports today.

On the calendar today

The consumer price index prints at 8:30 a.m. ET, the day’s one high-importance release. Headline inflation is forecast at 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5%, with the core rate seen at 2.5% against 2.6%. On the month, the headline is forecast at 0.1% after a 0.4% decline, and core at 0.2% after a flat June. The core reading strips out food and energy, the two categories that swing most from month to month. The MBA’s 30-year mortgage rate already crossed at 7:00 a.m. ET, easing to 6.77% from 6.81%. That one is out. Energy inventories follow at 10:30 a.m. ET, when the EIA reports weekly crude and gasoline stocks; crude is forecast to draw down 1.4 million barrels after a 2.5 million build, with gasoline seen off 1.2 million. The Treasury’s monthly budget statement closes the schedule at 2:00 p.m. ET, forecast at a $346 billion deficit against $120 billion the month before.

Backdrop

Stocks slipped Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.32% to 7,728.20. The Dow eased 0.34% to 53,791.85. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.60% to 26,445.45, the weakest of the three. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.72%. The VIX edged up to 15.37.

The week ahead

• Thursday: the July producer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET, forecast at 0.2% on the month after a 0.3% decline.
• Friday: July retail sales at 8:30 a.m. ET, forecast at 0.1% after 0.2%, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 10:00 a.m. ET, forecast at 54.5 from 55.2.
• Tuesday: Home Depot reports quarterly results.

What to watch

Inflation is the whole session. The 8:30 print carries both a headline and a core reading, and the calendar rates each one high; the rest of the day answers to it. Both are July figures, the freshest look at where price gains stand.

Energy stockpiles are the midmorning read. The EIA’s crude and gasoline figures at 10:30 a.m. ET are a government count of what sits in storage, with draws forecast in both after last week’s crude build.

Overnight, the news flow ran heaviest on two fronts. One was the inflation report itself. The other was the AI-server group, where Super Micro Computer’s results after Tuesday’s close drew the day’s heaviest coverage across chip and hardware names.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.