Markets today: a thin Monday opens a week of retail earnings and Fed minutes

Monday is quiet. The week is not. Big-box retailers dominate the earnings calendar: Home Depot reports Tuesday, Lowe’s and Target on Wednesday, and Walmart on Thursday. On Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its July meeting, and the path of interest rates drew the heaviest news coverage over the weekend. Today itself is thin — three medium-importance economic reports fill the schedule, and no company Bellwize covers reports today.

On the calendar today

Three reports print today. Each is rated medium importance. The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index leads at 8:30 a.m. ET, a gauge of factory activity across New York State, forecast at 11 after 15.6 in the prior reading. The NAHB housing market index follows at 10:00 a.m. ET, a measure of homebuilder sentiment, seen at 33 against 34. After the close, at 4:00 p.m. ET, the Treasury reports net long-term TIC flows (foreign purchases of U.S. securities), forecast at $151.4 billion after $232.7 billion. None of the three carries the weight of a jobs or inflation release.

Backdrop

Stocks eased into the weekend. The S&P 500 slipped 0.17% Friday to 7,785.76. The Dow fell 0.20% to 53,732.41. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.28% to 26,729.16, the weakest of the three. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.63%, and the VIX rose 4.63% to 14.91.

The week ahead

• Tuesday: housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET, both rated high; starts are forecast at 1.35 million annualized after 1.427 million, and permits at 1.37 million after 1.374 million. Home Depot reports.
• Wednesday: the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its July meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET. Lowe’s and Target report.
• Thursday: Walmart and Deere report.

What to watch

The housing data runs across the next two sessions. Today’s NAHB builder-sentiment index at 10:00 a.m. ET lands a day before Tuesday’s starts and permits, an early read on new construction ahead of the higher-rated numbers. Sentiment and hard activity do not always move in step, which is part of why the two-day sequence carries weight. Builder sentiment reflects the industry’s own mood; starts and permits count what is actually breaking ground.

Foreign demand for U.S. assets closes the day. The Treasury’s TIC report at 4:00 p.m. ET counts overseas purchases of American stocks and bonds. It is a monthly figure, and a delayed one, so it reads on positioning built up over weeks.

Interest rates frame the week. The heaviest overnight news flow centered on the Federal Reserve and the direction of policy, the question the market keeps returning to. Today’s calendar does little to settle it, and the week’s bigger tests come later.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.