Markets today: housing data leads into retail earnings and Fed minutes

Housing data leads the morning, but the schedule ahead belongs to the retailers and the Fed. Housing starts and building permits, the two high-importance releases of the session, are both due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Home Depot reported quarterly results before the bell, the first of several large retailers on this week’s calendar. The rest come later. On Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its most recent policy meeting.

On the calendar today

The morning is built around the housing sector. The weekly ADP employment change opens the run at 8:15 a.m. ET. Housing starts (8:30 a.m. ET) carry a forecast of 1.35 million units at an annual rate, against 1.427 million the month before. Building permits (8:30 a.m. ET) are seen at 1.37 million, close to the prior 1.374 million. Import prices land at the same time, with a 0.1% monthly gain expected after 0.3%, and export prices are forecast at 0.2% following a 0.6% decline.

Two more medium-importance prints follow the open. Industrial production (9:15 a.m. ET) is forecast at 0.3% on the month, up from 0.1%. Pending home sales (10:00 a.m. ET) are seen rising 0.2% after a 5.4% drop. The weekly API crude oil inventory reading closes the day at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Backdrop

Stocks fell on Monday. The S&P 500 closed at 7,745.06, down 0.52%. The Dow finished at 53,459.78, off 0.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite ended at 26,644.91, down 0.32%. Losses were broad but shallow across the three indexes. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.68%.

The week ahead

Wednesday. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its latest meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET, a high-importance item on the calendar. Lowe’s and Target report the same day.

Thursday. Walmart and Deere report.

What to watch

The two housing prints at 8:30 a.m. ET are the day’s clearest read on residential construction. Starts are forecast to ease from the prior month, while permits are seen roughly flat. Both feed the same question about how the housing market is holding up.

Home Depot’s report is the other early marker. The results, out before the open, are the first of a run of large retailer earnings this week and offer an initial look at consumer spending on the home. More reports from the sector follow over the next two sessions, which places the housing figures and the retail results on the same theme.

Yields stay in view. The 10-year Treasury note ended Monday at 4.68% after climbing on the session, and rate-sensitive corners of the market will take their cue from where it settles as the data crosses.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.