Markets today: a jobs-heavy week opens with services and claims

The week is built around the labor market. Friday brings the August employment report, and the two data points on today’s calendar, the ISM services index and weekly jobless claims, are the warm-up act. Stocks closed higher on Wednesday. Now the attention turns to how the economy’s larger, services-driven half is holding up going into that jobs number. It is also a holiday-shortened week, with U.S. markets closed Monday for Labor Day.

On the calendar today

The morning opens at 8:30 ET with weekly initial jobless claims, forecast at 205,000 after 203,000 the prior week. Claims are the timeliest of the labor indicators, refreshed every week rather than once a month. The same slot carries the July trade balance, seen at a deficit of $90 billion against $73.3 billion, plus the month’s import and export figures. Remarks from the Fed’s Waller are also on the tape.

The main event lands at 10:00 ET: the ISM services PMI, forecast at 54.3 after 54.1 the month before. A reading above 50 marks expansion. Later, the Fed’s Hammack speaks at 3:00 ET.

Reporting today

Lululemon Athletica reports quarterly results today. It is the day’s lone earnings name. The figures offer a read on higher-end apparel demand heading into fall.

Backdrop

Wall Street finished Wednesday in the green. The S&P 500 closed at 7,666.60, up 0.46%. The Dow rose 0.56% to 53,061.95, and the Nasdaq added 0.45% to 26,217.83. The VIX ended at 15.35. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.79%.

The week ahead

• Friday: the August employment report at 8:30 ET. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast at a gain of 58,000 after the prior reading’s decline of 23,000, with the unemployment rate seen holding at 4.1%.
• Monday: markets are closed for Labor Day.

What to watch

The services PMI is the session’s headline data event and the broadest single read on the part of the economy that runs outside factories. The survey also reports employment and prices components alongside its top-line index. It arrives two days before payrolls, so the detail underneath the headline number draws more attention than usual.

Two Fed officials are scheduled to speak, Waller in the morning and Hammack in the afternoon. Their read on the policy path is the kind of commentary the market parses closely in the run-up to a jobs report, and monetary policy is among the louder threads running across the wires this morning. Two appearances give the market two separate windows on the debate, one before the open and one well into the afternoon.

Lululemon’s report rounds out the day. It offers a discrete look at the consumer before the broader labor picture fills in on Friday.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.