Markets today: CPI arrives just before a Fed decision week

Wall Street’s week comes down to two dates. The first is this morning. The consumer price index lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, the last inflation reading on the calendar before the Federal Reserve sets rates next Wednesday. The second date is next Wednesday, when the Fed announces its rate decision and publishes fresh projections. A University of Michigan sentiment reading falls between them, at mid-morning today. Inflation ran as the dominant thread on the overnight tape, with Dow Jones and Reuters both weighing what the figure means for the Fed. Today is a data day with a rate decision waiting on the other side.

On the calendar today

Consumer prices headline the morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Headline inflation is forecast at 0.4% on the month, up from 0.1%, and 3.4% over the year, unchanged from the prior reading. Core inflation, which sets aside food and energy, is seen at 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annually, down from 2.5%. The index level itself is forecast at 334.85 against 333.92 a month earlier. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index arrives at 10:00 a.m. ET, forecast at 51.0 versus 51.7. The monthly Treasury budget statement closes the session at 2:00 p.m. ET, seen at a $404 billion deficit after $432 billion. The heavy items come first.

Backdrop

Three big indexes closed lower. The S&P 500 finished Thursday at 7,591.70, down 0.58%. The Dow ended at 52,064.10, off 0.60%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,081.72, down 0.65%. The Cboe Volatility Index eased to 17.13, a fall of 3.98%. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.83%, up on the day.

The week ahead

One day carries the calendar. Wednesday, September 16: retail sales arrive at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Federal Reserve releases its interest-rate decision and updated economic projections at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by the Fed chair’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

What to watch

The 8:30 release sets the morning. Markets receive headline and core inflation in the same report, and the monthly figures carry the freshest read on price pressure. The spread between the two matters, since core sets aside food and energy, the categories that swing hardest from month to month.

The 10-year Treasury yield goes into the print at 4.83%, and its move around the number will draw attention across rate-sensitive parts of the market. Yields were a running theme across the wires overnight, with Dow Jones and Reuters both tracking the bond market into the data.

Michigan’s preliminary sentiment reading at 10:00 a.m. ET offers a same-morning look at how households view prices and the wider economy. It arrives 90 minutes after the inflation data, a quick second data point to shape the session.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.