Markets today: a quiet Tuesday before the Fed's Wednesday call

The economic calendar is light on Tuesday. The market is looking past it. Wednesday afternoon holds the week’s main event, when the Federal Reserve delivers its interest-rate decision alongside a fresh set of economic projections. Today’s slate runs to a regional factory survey and two second-tier releases, and none of it carries the weight of what the Fed says at 2 p.m. ET tomorrow.

On the calendar today

Three medium-importance reports are due. ADP’s weekly employment-change reading opens the morning at 8:15 a.m. ET, a high-frequency check on hiring between the monthly payroll figures. The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index follows at 8:30 a.m. ET, with a forecast of 14.75 against last month’s 20.6. After the close, at 4:30 p.m. ET, the American Petroleum Institute publishes its weekly crude oil inventory estimate; the prior week showed a drawdown of 0.3 million barrels.

Backdrop

Stocks closed lower on Monday. The S&P 500 finished at 7,619.98, down 0.48%. The Dow slipped 0.29% to 52,421.20, and the Nasdaq Composite gave back 0.56% to 26,186.41. The moves were shallow across the board, with the VIX holding at 17.1 as the Fed’s Wednesday decision drew near. The 10-year Treasury yield closed the prior session at 4.96%, a reference point traders will carry into that meeting.

The week ahead

• Wednesday, Sept. 16: Retail sales for the prior month at 8:30 a.m. ET, a monthly gauge of consumer spending. Then the week’s centerpiece: the Fed’s rate decision and updated economic projections at 2 p.m. ET, with the target rate currently at 3.75%. The chair’s press conference follows at 2:30 p.m. ET.
• Thursday, Sept. 17: Housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET, the month’s main reading on residential construction.

What to watch

The Empire State index is the first of the month’s regional manufacturing surveys, an early gauge of how factory activity is holding up. It is one of the few hard data points on how goods demand is tracking this month. A sharp move from the prior reading tends to color expectations for the broader regional surveys that follow it through the month.

Energy is the day’s other data point. The API’s crude oil inventory estimate lands after the close and gives the session its read on supply, ahead of the government’s official figures later in the week. A large build or draw can move the whole energy complex in thin afternoon trading, which makes the estimate worth a look even though it is a private-sector figure.

The morning also brings a labor read. ADP’s weekly employment-change series runs noisier than the monthly payrolls report, but it offers a timely pulse on hiring between those larger releases. Taken together, the three prints give the session its shape before the Fed takes over the week on Wednesday.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.