Markets today: housing data follows the Fed's first hike since 2023

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023. The tape is still absorbing it. The decision landed hardest on the Dow, which fell 1.21%, while the Nasdaq held flat. Today the calendar shifts to housing, with starts and building permits leading a run of releases at 8:30 a.m. ET.

On the calendar today

Housing dominates the morning. Housing starts, the session’s main high-importance print, publish at 8:30 a.m. ET with a forecast of 1.31 million units against 1.239 million the prior month. Building permits arrive alongside them, forecast at 1.41 million versus 1.433 million previously, a read on the construction still in the pipeline. The month-over-month figures come in the same release: starts fell 12.4% last month, while permits rose 4.3%.

The 8:30 print carries more than housing. Initial jobless claims are forecast at 208,000, a touch above the prior week’s 206,000, and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index publishes at the same hour, forecast at 30.5 after a 47.4 reading last month. Pending home sales close the morning’s data at 10 a.m. ET, forecast at a 2% gain against a 2.3% decline the month before. The year-over-year reading, down 2.2% in the prior month, publishes in the same report.

Backdrop

Stocks fell on Wednesday. The S&P 500 closed at 7,551.81, down 0.45%, as the Fed’s decision hit. The Dow dropped 1.21% to 51,461.90, the steepest move of the group, while the Nasdaq Composite finished essentially unchanged at 25,978.42. The VIX slid 9.77% to 15.98 as the decision cleared the calendar. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.00%, up from the prior session and the reference the market carries into today.

What to watch

The rate decision still sets the tone. With the increase now on the board, the question turns to how the Treasury market and rate-sensitive sectors settle in the sessions that follow, and the 10-year yield at 5.00% is the level to track. It is the first move higher in more than two years.

Housing gets an unusually full morning. Starts, permits, and pending sales all report inside a two-hour window, a broad look at both new construction and the resale market. The sector sits close to the center of how higher rates feed through to the wider economy, which gives today’s figures added weight.

Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed index round out the 8:30 slate. Claims stay the timeliest read on the labor market, and the Philly Fed survey is one of the first regional manufacturing gauges each month. The forecast of 30.5 would mark a sharp step down from last month’s 47.4, so the print is worth a close look. Both land in the same half-hour as the housing data.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.