Markets today: a heavy data week opens with oil and yields climbing

A light Monday calendar gives way to core PCE on Wednesday and the September jobs report Friday, as oil and Treasury yields start the week higher.

Monday’s calendar is light. The week’s is heavy. Wednesday brings the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index; Friday closes with the September jobs report. Between them sit the two releases that shape rate expectations more than anything else due this week. Markets open the stretch on edge anyway. Oil prices climbed and Treasury yields stayed elevated after President Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal over the weekend, and U.S. stock futures were subdued early Monday.

On the calendar today

Two second-tier items are on the docket. The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index is due at 10:30 a.m. ET, following a prior reading of 11.6, and offers an early regional look at factory conditions. The Fed’s Barkin is scheduled to speak at 1:30 p.m. ET, one of the central-bank voices investors will parse as the tape turns back toward inflation and rates. Neither release ranks with what follows this week, but on a quiet Monday they are what the desk has to work with.

Backdrop

Stocks finished last week higher. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,743.41, up 0.51%, and the Dow rose 0.93% to 51,828.62. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.48%, ending at 27,068.72. The mood underneath was less settled. The Cboe Volatility Index jumped 9.35% to 16.26, and the 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 5.18%. Yields at that level keep the pressure on rate-sensitive corners of the market.

The week ahead

Tuesday: the JOLTS report on job openings, at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Wednesday: personal income, personal spending, the core PCE price index, and the final second-quarter GDP estimate, all at 8:30 a.m. ET. Micron Technology reports.
Thursday: the ISM manufacturing PMI, at 10:00 a.m. ET. Nike reports.
Friday: the September employment report, with nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Wednesday carries the heaviest load, stacking the inflation and growth data into a single morning.

What to watch

Energy prices set the early tone. Brent crude rose toward $107 a barrel after the weekend breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks, extending a climb of nearly 18% this month, and that revived the inflation worry keeping Treasury yields firm. Higher yields on risk-free government debt compete with stocks for capital, and futures pointed to a cautious open. The move gives this week’s price and jobs data an added charge.

Barkin’s afternoon remarks are the day’s live Fed input. With the tape refocused on inflation and the path of rates, any comment he offers on policy will draw a close read. His remarks come before the week’s data begins to land.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.