Markets today: Core PCE and GDP anchor a heavy data morning

The week’s inflation reading arrives this morning. At 8:30 a.m. ET the Core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, prints alongside the final read on second-quarter GDP and the latest figures on household income and spending. It is the densest data hour of the week, and it opens a run that ends Friday with the September jobs report. Stocks come in off a quiet Tuesday.

On the calendar today

The 8:30 a.m. ET slate carries the weight. The Core PCE price index is forecast at 0.3% on the month, up from 0.2%; the headline PCE index is seen at 0.4% against 0.2%, with the year-over-year rate holding at 3.7%. Final second-quarter GDP growth is pegged at 1.5%, revised down from a 2.1% reading. Personal spending is forecast at 0.8%, a step up from 0.2%, and personal income at 0.4%, flat on the month. ADP’s private payrolls figure comes first, at 8:15 a.m. ET, seen at 70,000 against 38,000. The Chicago PMI follows at 9:45, forecast at 51.2 after 47.1. The advance goods trade balance prints with the 8:30 batch, seen at a $115 billion deficit against $118.8 billion. Weekly crude inventories from the EIA close the data at 10:30 a.m. ET, forecast at a 700,000-barrel draw after a 2.97 million build. It is a full board. Fed officials are on the tape into the evening: Barkin at 1:30 p.m. ET, Goolsbee at 5:10 and Kashkari at 6.

Reporting today

Micron Technology reports after today’s close.

Backdrop

Stocks closed narrowly lower Tuesday. The S&P 500 finished at 7,670.84, down 0.17%. The Dow ended at 51,349.92, off 0.26%. The Nasdaq Composite settled at 26,797.54, down 0.09%, the shallowest of the three. Among the large-cap names Bellwize covers, Oracle led the gainers, up 3.9%, while lululemon athletica fell 3.7% at the other end. The VIX held at 16.13. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.24%.

The week ahead

• Thursday: the ISM manufacturing PMI, the month’s read on factory activity, at 10 a.m. ET, forecast 55 against 54.6. Nike reports.
• Friday: the September jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, the week’s marquee release. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast at 90,000, down from 162,000, and the unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.1%.
• Monday: the ISM services PMI at 10 a.m. ET, following a 55.4 prior reading.

What to watch

The inflation reading is the morning’s focal point, and price pressures were the loudest theme across the wires overnight. Core PCE excludes food and energy and feeds straight into the rate debate, so the three Fed officials speaking today will be parsed closely once the figure is out. ADP’s private-payroll count at 8:15 a.m. ET is the morning’s first labor read, arriving with the income and spending numbers that show how households are holding up. Micron’s results after the close offer a read on memory-chip demand, one of the market’s busiest corners this year. Everything else on the slate fills in around those. The number leads.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.