Markets today: ISM manufacturing and a Fed chorus set up the jobs report

Factory activity and a run of Federal Reserve speakers headline the last full session before Friday’s September jobs report. It is a jobs-report week. The ISM manufacturing index prints at 10 a.m. ET, and five Fed policymakers take the microphone from mid-morning into the evening. Stocks come in split: the Dow closed lower Wednesday while the Nasdaq held higher, with chipmakers lifted by Micron’s results and Treasury yields grinding up.

On the calendar today

Weekly jobless claims lead off at 8:30 a.m. ET, a gauge of layoffs forecast at 200,000 after 197,000 the prior week. It is the week’s first look at the labor market. The main number comes at 10 a.m. ET, when the ISM manufacturing PMI is seen at 55, up from 54.6. The index polls purchasing managers at factories across the country. The survey’s employment component, last at 51.2, prints alongside it, just above the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction. That is the morning’s weight. Fed officials are on the tape all day: Barkin, Schmid and Collins speak at 9:05 a.m. ET, Williams at 3:30 p.m. ET and Logan at 6:45 p.m. ET.

Reporting today

Nike reports today.

Backdrop

Stocks finished mixed Wednesday. The S&P 500 settled at 7,651.54, down 0.25%. The Dow dropped 0.86% to 50,906.05, the weakest of the three. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,861.06, up 0.24%, the only one of the three to finish higher. Among the large-cap names Bellwize covers, Intel led the gainers, up 3.7%, with Adobe up 2.9%. At the other end, General Motors fell 4.3% and Constellation Energy dropped 4.0%. The VIX sat at 16.39. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.26%.

The week ahead

• Friday: the September jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, the week’s marquee release. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast at 90,000, down from 162,000, with the unemployment rate seen holding at 4.1%.
• Monday: the ISM services PMI at 10 a.m. ET, following a 55.4 prior reading.

What to watch

The ISM manufacturing survey is the morning’s focal point, the first hard read on September factory activity and a gauge the rate debate leans on. The five Fed speakers will be parsed against it, and against a bond market under pressure: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.26% on Wednesday, one of the loudest themes across the wires overnight. Rising yields lift borrowing costs. Micron’s results, out after Wednesday’s close, are the season’s first big memory-chip report and a read on one of the market’s busiest corners this year. Watch whether the split in Wednesday’s tape, tech higher and the Dow lower, carries into the open.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.