Markets today: a services read before a Fed-minutes week

The trading week opens light on the calendar and heavy on anticipation. Today itself is quiet. The only scheduled U.S. economic release is the ISM services index, due at 10 a.m. ET. The event markets are really circling comes Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its last policy meeting. Rate-path coverage ran through the weekend’s financial headlines across Reuters and Dow Jones wires, and those minutes are the week’s first direct look at the committee’s own account of that debate. Between now and Wednesday, the services print is the only piece of hard data on the slate.

On the calendar today

The ISM services PMI lands at 10 a.m. ET. It is the day’s lone release. The prior reading was 55.4, and the figure penciled in on the calendar is 55. Any print above 50 signals expansion in the services side of the economy, which accounts for most U.S. output. Services span retail, finance, health care and transportation, so the index reads as a wide gauge of demand. The subindexes inside the report, covering prices and employment, often draw as much attention as the headline number.

Backdrop

Stocks ended last week higher. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.73% on the session. The Dow rose 0.49% to 51,176.96. The Nasdaq Composite led the majors with a 1.19% gain, finishing at 27,190.86. The Cboe Volatility Index settled at 16.18, higher on the day, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.24%. The volatility gauge remains in the mid-teens heading into the week.

The week ahead

• Wednesday: The FOMC minutes are released at 2 p.m. ET.
• Thursday: PepsiCo reports.
• Friday: The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading is due at 10 a.m. ET. Delta Air Lines reports.

What to watch

The services read. A few threads run through the open. Beyond the headline index, traders parse the ISM report’s prices and employment components for where cost and hiring pressure sit in the largest part of the economy. The release arrives at 10 a.m. ET, the day’s one scheduled data point.

Where rates are priced. The heaviest news flow over the weekend, across Reuters and Dow Jones coverage, centered on the Fed’s policy path. That framing sets the tone for how equities and Treasuries trade into the open, with the 10-year yield starting the week at 5.24%.

The tape under the surface. Semiconductors and large-cap technology drew the bulk of the weekend’s single-stock coverage. The Nasdaq Composite, where many of those names trade, led the major indexes on Friday and enters the week at 27,190.86. With the calendar thin until midweek, that pre-open flow is most of what there is to read.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.