Markets today: a Fed chorus before Wednesday's minutes

Wall Street opens to a quiet calendar and a busy Fed. Four central bank officials speak through Tuesday’s session, and Wednesday brings the minutes from policymakers’ last meeting. Today’s own releases sit a tier below: the trade balance at 8:30 a.m. ET and ADP’s weekly payrolls figure ahead of it. Consumer sentiment closes the week Friday. Bonds hold the attention. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Monday at 5.28%, up four basis points.

On the calendar today

The trade balance leads the data at 8:30 a.m. ET, with the deficit seen widening to $102 billion from $88.6 billion the prior month. ADP’s weekly employment-change reading lands at 8:15 a.m. ET. Then the Fed takes the microphone. Williams speaks at 9:05 a.m. ET, Bowman at 10:45 a.m., Schmid at 1:15 p.m., and Logan at 7:00 p.m. The lineup gives markets four chances to hear how officials read the economy before the minutes land. Energy gets two checkpoints: the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook at noon ET and the API’s weekly crude inventory estimate at 4:30 p.m. The trade figure tracks the gap between what the country imports and exports, and a wider deficit subtracts from headline growth. The weekly ADP series offers a higher-frequency read on private-sector hiring than the monthly payrolls report.

Monday closed broadly higher

The major indexes finished Monday in the green, the Nasdaq out front. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05% to 27,477.31. The S&P 500 added 0.66% to 7,773.95, and the Dow gained 0.18%, or 90.94 points, to 51,267.90. Among single names, Shopify led the advancers, up 5.8%, and Constellation Energy and Intuitive Surgical each gained more than 3.7%. Chipotle was the steepest decliner, off 4.7%. Volatility eased. The Cboe Volatility Index slipped 1.29% to 15.32, while the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 5.28%.

The week ahead

• Wednesday, Oct. 7: the FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET.
• Thursday, Oct. 8: PepsiCo reports.
• Friday, Oct. 9: the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 10:00 a.m. ET (forecast 47.6, prior 48.1), and Delta Air Lines reports.

What to watch

The Fed carries the day’s signal. Four officials take the podium between the morning and the evening, the final scheduled remarks before Wednesday’s minutes detail how the last decision was reached. Rates stay the backdrop, with the 10-year at 5.28%.

Technology held the tape into the new week. The Nasdaq’s 1.05% gain outran the broader market, though chipmakers lagged: Intel and Qualcomm each fell more than 2%.

Energy also draws a look. The EIA’s outlook at midday and the API’s inventory numbers after the close give the oil market two fresh readings.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.