Markets today: a quiet Friday before a CPI-and-banks week

A light U.S. calendar hands Friday to a consumer-sentiment reading and a Fed speaker, with September inflation and the first big-bank results due next week and Delta's quarter already on the tape.

The loud part of the trading week is still ahead. September’s consumer price index lands Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and third-quarter earnings season opens Tuesday for the big banks and the large health insurers. Today is thinner. The University of Michigan’s preliminary October sentiment reading is the only high-importance U.S. release, and the Fed’s Collins speaks as the session ends. Delta Air Lines has already put airlines in the frame, reporting September-quarter results before the open with jet-fuel costs again at the center. The calendar is quiet today; the week is not.

On the calendar today

One number anchors the session. The University of Michigan releases its preliminary October consumer sentiment index at 10:00 a.m. ET, with the forecast at 47.6 after 48.1 in the prior reading. The Fed’s Collins then speaks at 4:00 p.m. ET, as the stock market closes. Beyond those two items the domestic data slate is bare.

Backdrop

Stocks ended Thursday mixed. The S&P 500 closed at 7,765.36, down 36.41 points or 0.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.25% to 27,193.34. The Dow held green, up 51.77 points or 0.10% at 51,231.64. The Cboe Volatility Index eased 1.49% to 15.18, low by historical standards. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.28%.

The week ahead

Two sessions carry the load.

Tuesday, October 13. Existing home sales arrive at 10:00 a.m. ET, with the forecast at 3.97 million after 3.98 million. JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group report, opening the quarter for the large banks and the health names.
Wednesday, October 14. The September consumer price index prints at 8:30 a.m. ET, with headline inflation seen at 3.6% year over year against 3.4% previously and the core rate at 2.5% against 2.4%. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock report.

What to watch

Delta’s results set the first marker of the season. The carrier reported adjusted earnings of $1.72 a share for the September quarter, against diluted GAAP earnings of $1.15, and guided to full-year earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 a share, with December-quarter revenue expected to grow about 20% from a year earlier. Management tied the pressure to fuel, noting that the September quarter absorbed more than $500 million in higher fuel costs against its July guidance. How the stock trades at the open will color the read on the broader travel and airline names.

The 10:00 a.m. ET sentiment figure is the morning’s one macro tell, and the only scheduled U.S. data of the day. It is also the last gauge of the household mood before the weekend. Collins closes the session on the tape. The sentiment number and the Fed voice are the whole of today’s agenda.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.