Markets today: banks open their books before a CPI week

Wall Street opens the week with earnings season underway and an inflation reading two days out. Citigroup starts the big banks’ reporting today. Wednesday brings the Consumer Price Index, the release most likely to move rate expectations and the week’s main event. Three Fed officials speak before then, beginning this morning. Housing data arrives midday. The calendar builds from here.

On the calendar today

Existing home sales lead the data at 10:00 a.m. ET, with the forecast at an annual pace of 3.95 million, down from 3.98 million a month earlier. That is the session’s one high-importance release, and it stands as the clearest read on the housing market before Wednesday’s inflation figure. A weekly ADP employment reading comes at 8:15 a.m. ET. The Treasury’s monthly budget statement follows at 2:00 p.m. ET, where a deficit of $29 billion is expected after a $167 billion shortfall the prior month. Fed speakers bracket the day. Christopher Waller spoke before the open, with Thomas Barkin due at 1:00 p.m. ET and Susan Collins at 4:00 p.m. ET. Their remarks are the week’s first comments from policymakers ahead of the data.

Reporting today

Citigroup reports today, the only company Bellwize covers on this session’s earnings calendar. Financials set the pace. More of the big banks follow later in the week.

Stocks finished Monday mixed

Monday’s holiday-thinned session ended split. The S&P 500 slipped 0.06% to 7,807.24, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.44% to 27,245.90. The Dow went the other way, up 0.38%, or 195.60 points, to 51,850.55. The Cboe Volatility Index rose 1.38% to 15.42. Volatility stayed low. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.22%, with the bond market closed for Columbus Day.

The week ahead

• Wednesday, Oct. 14: the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET; Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock report.
• Thursday, Oct. 15: the Producer Price Index and retail sales, both at 8:30 a.m. ET; Charles Schwab reports.
• Friday, Oct. 16: Fed Chair Warsh speaks.

What to watch

Citigroup opens the big banks’ results today, the market’s first clear read on the quarter from the financial sector. Investors will weigh loan growth and net interest income while rates stay high and the jobs market cools. The report sets the tone for the open.

Today’s Fed remarks land two days before the inflation data. The timing matters. Barkin and Collins speak in the afternoon, and traders will listen for how officials weigh price pressures now, with every word read for the rate path.

The backdrop stays calm for now. The VIX closed Monday at 15.42, and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.22% with the bond market shut for the holiday. Both reopen to a fuller week. Where yields settle as the inflation data approaches will shape how stocks trade into Wednesday.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.