Markets today: CPI lands before the open

September inflation data headlines a heavy Wednesday, with Fed speakers and Morgan Stanley earnings behind it.

The September Consumer Price Index lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it is the number the whole session trades around. Forecasts put the headline rate at 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4%, with the core rate at 2.5% against 2.4%. On a monthly basis the headline figure is seen at 0.6% versus 0.4%. Treasury yields slipped overnight as desks positioned into the print, and the 10-year note sits at 5.24%. Inflation was the loudest theme on the overnight wires, and the data does not stop here. Producer prices and retail sales follow Thursday.

On the calendar today

The inflation prints headline a busy sheet. All four hit at 8:30 a.m. ET: the headline rate (3.6% expected, 3.4% prior) and core rate (2.5% versus 2.4%) year over year, plus the monthly headline (0.6% versus 0.4%) and monthly core (0.2% versus 0.3%). Two Fed speakers are on the calendar around the data, with Barkin due at 1:30 p.m. ET and Bowman earlier in the morning. The Treasury’s Monthly Budget Statement follows at 2:00 p.m. ET, where a $29 billion deficit is penciled in against $167 billion the month before.

Reporting today

Morgan Stanley reports before the open. More banks follow all week.

Backdrop

Stocks drifted lower on Tuesday. The S&P 500 finished at 7,805.45, down 0.02%. The Dow closed at 51,670.10, off 0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite settled at 27,204.38, down 0.15%. The VIX held at 15.33.

The week ahead

Thursday: Producer prices and retail sales both land at 8:30 a.m. ET, each a high-importance read. The monthly PPI forecast is 0.5% against 0.4% prior; retail sales are seen at 0.3% after a 1.2% jump the month before. The Charles Schwab Corporation reports.
Friday: Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak, closing out the week’s run of central-bank commentary.

What to watch

The 8:30 print. Yields eased into the data overnight, and the 10-year at 5.24% has room to move once the figure is out. The cross-asset reaction frames the rest of the day.

Bank earnings. Morgan Stanley’s results add to a heavy week for the financials, with the sector’s trading and wealth-management desks in focus.

Fed voices. Barkin and Bowman both speak hours after the inflation data. Any read on the rate path now lands against a fresh CPI number.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.