Markets today: light data and energy earnings ahead of Friday's payrolls

Friday’s July employment report sets the tone for the week, and Thursday is the quiet run-up to it. Today’s calendar is light: weekly jobless claims and two second-quarter productivity readings at 8:30 a.m. ET, with a Fed speaker after the close. The corporate slate carries more weight. Three of the large-cap names Bellwize covers report, ConocoPhillips and Constellation Energy among them.

On the calendar today

The morning’s data lands in one batch at 8:30 a.m. ET. Initial jobless claims are forecast at 202,000, up from 197,000 the prior week. The series is a weekly count of first-time unemployment filings, read as a near-real-time gauge of layoffs. Alongside it come two second-quarter labor gauges: unit labor costs, seen at 2.1% after 1.8%, and nonfarm productivity, forecast at 0.6% against 0.3% the quarter before. Both are preliminary estimates, the first official read on how much the economy produced per hour of work last quarter and what that output cost in wages. All three are medium-importance releases. Later, the Federal Reserve’s Musalem is scheduled to speak at 5:30 p.m. ET, the session’s only central-bank appearance.

Reporting today

Three covered companies report today: ConocoPhillips, Constellation Energy and Airbnb. The list runs from oil and gas to power generation to travel.

Backdrop

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.17% to 7,723.55. The Dow added 0.49% to 54,349.12. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.83% to 26,363.44, leaving technology behind the blue chips. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.63%. The VIX held at 15.95.

The week ahead

• Friday: the July employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET, covering nonfarm payrolls (forecast 80,000, prior 57,000) and the unemployment rate (forecast 4.2%, holding at 4.2%). Earnings from Vistra.
• Tuesday: existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET, forecast at 4.07 million against 4.09 million. Earnings from Super Micro Computer.

What to watch

The morning’s labor data is the session’s clearest scheduled read. Weekly jobless claims track layoffs. The second-quarter productivity and unit-labor-cost figures measure output and wage costs per hour worked, one of the inputs the Fed watches on the wage side. All three print together at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Energy anchors the corporate calendar. ConocoPhillips, among the largest oil and gas producers Bellwize covers, reports today, and Constellation Energy, a power generator, reports with it. Airbnb rounds out the three and brings a consumer-travel read to a day otherwise weighted toward energy and power. The three span sectors, and results from names this size can move index futures before the opening bell.

One Fed voice closes it out. Musalem speaks at 5:30 p.m. ET, after markets shut. His remarks are the last scheduled item on a session that stays quiet until the labor-cost data clears at the open. It is the last light day before Friday.

This is a general-market summary for information only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation regarding any security.